MARTA stands to lose hundreds of millions in sales tax revenues over the next decade on top of an already projected $1.2 billion shortfall, according to a new economic analysis from the Georgia State University Economic Forecasting Center. This forecast further underscores the urgent need for a new dedicated and reliable source of transit funding in the state and region. Barely one month into the new fiscal year, MARTA is already re-evaluating its options to address a continuing shortfall in FY 2010 revenues.
“This new report is extremely sobering. Unfortunately, we’ve continued to see a decline in sales tax revenue since the last forecast six months ago,” says Dr. Beverly A. Scott, general manager of MARTA. “We must commit to ensuring a viable transit system in metro Atlanta. This new economic report shows our region’s transit future is in serious jeopardy unless the region and the state take urgent action.”
The new sales tax forecast predicts that MARTA will see an additional $10.8 million drop in sales tax receipts in FY 2010, which will have a serious impact on the operating budget for the current year. The $10.8 million figure is on top of the $74.3 million in sales tax decline that had been previously forecasted in Georgia State University’s last MARTA sales tax revenue forecast report.
Over the coming decade, the report predicts an additional loss to MARTA of $232.1 million on top of the $1.2 billion shortfall previously projected - a devastating loss that would seriously impair MARTA’s ability to provide bus and rail service. This forecast predicts that there will not be in uptick in sales tax revenue until 2012.
Georgia State University’s forecast for MARTA’s FY 2009 budget showed that the authority would be down $40 million in sales tax revenue, which proved to be “right on the money.” MARTA recently closed the books on its FY 2009 budget, which showed that the University’s projections came within 0.2% of the final sales tax total.
“We take these economic projections seriously because our experience is that they have been extremely accurate in predicting MARTA’s sales tax revenue receipts,” said Dr. Scott.
“We also need for our region to take these predictions seriously,” said Dr. Scott. “They show that current MARTA transit service levels cannot be sustained under the current funding structure.”
“Transit is too important to our region to let it die,” said Michael Walls, chairman of the MARTA board. “These numbers show that it is time for the region to take seriously the financial condition we’re in and to take action to close the economic gap in transit.”
MARTA has helped metro Atlanta attract billions of dollars in economic development, from the Centennial Olympic Games to mega-conventions and major corporations. MARTA has also helped improve air quality in the region, and is responsible for thousands of new jobs throughout metro Atlanta and the state.